MIN vs CHC prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 7.9 - MIN 7.3. CHC is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 15.2 total runs.
CHC
7.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIN
7.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
579
CHC
6810
Projected
CHC 7.9 — MIN 7.3
Actual
CHC 6 — MIN 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Taj Bradley R
MIN
FF48%97 mph12% whiff
FC24%90 mph37% whiff
FS20%91 mph35% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
FF47%93 mph18% whiff
CH27%79 mph31% whiff
SL15%83 mph48% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
92°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.002
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-58.4% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+49.4% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
+40.2% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.3% EV
-169
NRFI YRFI
+8.2% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+7.4% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
4.2 runs
40.3% win
CHC F5
4.7 runs
50.3% win
F5 Total
8.8
NRFI
38.3%
YRFI
61.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.3
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
92%
No HR
2%
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 1.03x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC29.1%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Royce Lewis 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Prielipp SP15-DAY-IL
Marco Raya RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=348)
Extreme model edge (49.4%, prob 78.2%) contradicts zone profitability (50.1% WR on high-edge games). Market sets 8.5 total despite 15.19 model projection — market disagrees fundamentally, likely correctly.
Key Factors
- Wrigley Field 1.03 park factor + 91.6°F + 10.7 mph wind IN = -8.1 mph headwind slightly suppresses; model still inflates due to lineup quality
- SP mismatch AGAINST min: Taj Bradley 3.88 ERA vs Matthew Boyd 4.86 ERA — 1.0 ERA gap favors CHC, not MIN
- Model 78.2% prob on OVER is extreme. Historical data: 60-65% prob totals = 0% WR (n=8). Model overconfident on probability.
- F5 edge also high (40.2%, 74.6% prob OVER F5) — model is consistently bullish across all time frames
- Boyd 4.86 ERA in thin air is concerning; MIN away teams struggle at altitude venues
Risk Factors
- Edge 49.4% is the highest on slate — correlation with worst historical WR. Recent calibration capped ML edges at 8%, suggesting model learned high edges = overconfidence.
- CHC has elite bullpen (bullpen_stats needed but lineup data shows depth). MIN bullpen weak (road team vulnerability).
- Market opened 8.5 and likely stayed firm — sharp money likely UNDER, pushing line elsewhere. Model's 15.19 is fantasy; reality is 10-11 at best.
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 54.7%
+7.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.4 pts
Total
8.5
+49.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →