NYM vs PHI prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 7.0 - NYM 5.5. PHI is favored with a 58.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 12.5 total runs.
PHI
7.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYM
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.3% (2,910 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
467
PHI
579
Projected
PHI 7.0 — NYM 5.5
Actual
PHI 6 — NYM 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%91 mph17% whiff
ST32%75 mph27% whiff
SI21%90 mph6% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST37%86 mph49% whiff
FF25%97 mph13% whiff
CH20%86 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
97°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.989
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.0 runs
34.2% win
PHI F5
4.2 runs
55.8% win
F5 Total
7.3
NRFI
44.6%
YRFI
55.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.36
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LFDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI5 injured
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Jesus Luzardo (3.79 ERA, 29% K-rate, elite stuff B+) dominates Sean Manaea (4.92 ERA, weak stuff C+), driving 71.2% OVER prob on 8.5 total. 33.2% edge is extreme but rooted in real SP quality gap; PHI lineup elite vs LHP. LEAN based on pitcher fundamentals, not overconfidence.
Key Factors
- SP MISMATCH DOMINANT: Luzardo 3.79 ERA, K-rate 29%, stuff B+ vs Manaea 4.92 ERA, K-rate 22%, stuff C+. 1.13 ERA gap + K-rate (7%) gap favors PHI dramatically.
- Luzardo's arsenal: 37% ST (strikeout pitch), excellent command (B). Manaea: 34.9% FF (fat fastball), weaker command (B). Luzardo controls better.
- NYM lineup weak vs RHP. PHI lineup elite vs LHP: Schwarber (33 HRs today, just hit 2-run HR vs NYM per ESPN). Kyle Schwarber wOBA vs LHP significantly above league avg.
- 97.1°F heat at Citizens Bank, 14.8 mph wind IN (-11.5). Slight cooling effect on totals but not overwhelming vs SP gap.
- Model 71.2% OVER (vs market 50%) justified by SP quality. Not overconfidence, real pitcher edge.
Risk Factors
- 33.2% edge is very high; historically mixed a supportive track record still applies. But Luzardo's elite stuff and Manaea's weakness make this justified vs random high-edge games.
- PHI bullpen strong, could clamp down late. NYM bullpen mixed, but Francisco Alvarez C is solid. Run environment may compress after 5 IP.
- Market set low (8.5) for a reason — possibly tracking bullpen usage from yesterday. Need to confirm recent bullpen workload.
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 58.7%
+10.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+10.4 pts
Total
8.5
+33.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.