FINAL: CLE 5 — PIT 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 4.5 - PIT 6.2 (PIT at 57.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PIT L4CLE L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,910 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
468
CLE
346
Projected
CLE 4.5 — PIT 6.2
Actual
CLE 5 — PIT 3
Pick Results
PIT @ CLE YRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%99 mph22% whiff
SL32%90 mph34% whiff
CH16%93 mph36% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST26%87 mph42% whiff
FF23%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
75°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.000
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.0% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-30.3% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-24.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+23.5% EV
+152
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+22.3% EV
-105
ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.6 runs
55.3% win
CLE F5
2.6 runs
33.0% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
49.1%
YRFI
50.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
7%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.079 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryan Reynolds PIT26.7%
ISO: 0.140 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT7 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
CLE3 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Market severely underpricing the run expectancy (10.76 model vs 8.5 market) due to CLE's weak bullpen and PIT recent offensive surge — but high edge (22.3%) lands historically mixed, so confidence capped at +1.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch favors AWAY: Jared Jones (4.72 ERA, 8.0 K/9) vs Gavin Williams (4.11 ERA, 8.0 K/9) — near parity, slight edge to CLE
- Model projects 6.18 first-5 runs (OVER 4.5 F5), but Williams' 4.11 ERA suggests tighter early inning control
- Coors adjacent temperature effect (74.9°F mild) + 7 mph wind in = neutral park multiplier (1.0)
- historically mixed: a supportive track record on 22% edge totals — historical caution on high-edge bets despite model conviction
- CLE bullpen fatigue unknown; PIT runs expectancy boosted by lineup depth.
Risk Factors
- High edge (22.3%) is RED FLAG in calibration history — model shows worst WR when edges >20%
- CLE has 8.5 market total (market likes UNDER) despite 10.76 projection — market may see something model doesn't (bullpen degradation, lineup splits)
- Zone profitability 50.1% WR = coin flip, not a lean. Confidence artificially high.
TOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGBULLPEN FATIGUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 57.2%
-47.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.0 pts
Total
8.5
+22.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.