PIT vs CLE prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.5 - PIT 6.2. PIT is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
468
CLE
346
Projected
CLE 4.5 — PIT 6.2
Actual
CLE 1 — PIT 7
SOLID
0.5u
PIT @ CLE YRFI
Edge: 3.7% | Odds: 114
PIT @ CLE YRFI is a matchup of two B-grade starters with near-identical command profiles. Gavin Williams (home) grades 1.004 pitcher_quality with 0.619 overall_score and 0.645 command_score; Jared Jones (away) sits at 0.975 quality with 0.585 overall and 0.585 command. Both show 28%+ K rates (Williams 0.283, Jones 0.269) and sub-8% BB rates. Model projects 4.53 home and 6.23 away runs (10.76 total) against an 8.5 market line - suggesting full-game scoring is priced tight. First-inning sim score of 6.2-4.5 reflects balanced pitcher quality; neither arm dominates enough to suppress runs cleanly. The 3.7% edge is modest because market has already priced both starters as competent; YRFI odds at +114 (46.7% implied) vs 48.2% model probability leaves only thin value.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
FF42%99 mph22% whiff
SL32%90 mph34% whiff
CH16%93 mph36% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST26%87 mph42% whiff
FF23%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
75°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.000
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.0% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-30.3% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-24.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+23.5% EV
+152
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+22.3% EV
-105
ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.6 runs
55.3% win
CLE F5
2.6 runs
33.0% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
49.1%
YRFI
50.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
7%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.079 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryan Reynolds PIT26.7%
ISO: 0.140 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT7 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
CLE3 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=348)
Market severely underpricing the run expectancy (10.76 model vs 8.5 market) due to CLE's weak bullpen and PIT recent offensive surge — but high edge (22.3%) lands in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR), so confidence capped at +1.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch favors AWAY: Jared Jones (4.72 ERA, 8.0 K/9) vs Gavin Williams (4.11 ERA, 8.0 K/9) — near parity, slight edge to CLE
- Model projects 6.18 first-5 runs (OVER 4.5 F5), but Williams' 4.11 ERA suggests tighter early inning control
- Coors adjacent temperature effect (74.9°F mild) + 7 mph wind in = neutral park multiplier (1.0)
- YELLOW zone: 50.1% WR on 22% edge totals — historical caution on high-edge bets despite model conviction
- CLE bullpen fatigue unknown; PIT runs expectancy boosted by lineup depth.
Risk Factors
- High edge (22.3%) is RED FLAG in calibration history — model shows worst WR when edges >20%
- CLE has 8.5 market total (market likes UNDER) despite 10.76 projection — market may see something model doesn't (bullpen degradation, lineup splits)
- Zone profitability 50.1% WR = coin flip, not a lean. Confidence artificially high.
TOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGBULLPEN FATIGUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 57.2%
-47.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.0 pts
Total
8.5
+22.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →