STL vs ARI prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 6.0 - STL 5.8. ARI is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
ARI
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARISTL
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
468
ARI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
STL
FF27%97 mph17% whiff
FC22%93 mph20% whiff
ST19%86 mph33% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
FF24%93 mph11% whiff
SI19%93 mph9% whiff
CU19%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
100°F2 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.5% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-28.8% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+21.8% EV
+100
F5 OVER 4.5
+15.0% EV
-130
F5_ML HOME
-7.8% EV
-112
ML AWAY
-4.5% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
3.4 runs
45.8% win
ARI F5
3.3 runs
42.9% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
46.8%
YRFI
53.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.29
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.06x
Alec Burleson STL28.9%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Corbin Carroll ARI26.5%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Dustin May | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Pfaadt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL3 injured
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
ARI8 injured
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Troy LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=348)
Model sees balanced SP matchup (Brandon Pfaadt 5.08 ERA vs Dustin May N/A) and projects 60.9% OVER, but market 9.0 total with both SPs uncertain (May is returning/rookie status). Conflicting signals: model +8 run projection (11.79) vs market 9.0 suggests market skepticism on May's reliability.
Key Factors
- Dustin May (away SP): ERA listed as N/A in profiles — returning arm, uncertain workload. K-rate 22.7%, command unclear. Risk of short outing.
- Brandon Pfaadt (home SP): 5.08 ERA, weak stuff (C), command (B). Below-average arm, but at least known commodity.
- Arizona's 100.1°F is extreme heat (tied for hottest game on slate). Chase Field retractable roof (likely closed for comfort) neutralizes HR boost.
- Model projects 11.79 total (balanced SPs, no mismatch), but 21.8% edge seems inflated given May's TBD status.
- ARI lineup elite vs LHP (Corbin Carroll strong; Arenado closing on 2K hits, momentum). STL lineup decent but not elite vs RHP.
Risk Factors
- TBD_PITCHER on May is a critical uncertainty. Returning arms often underperform or get yanked early, changing total expectations.
- Market 9.0 is BELOW model baseline (11.79) by 2.79 runs — suggests market is appropriately cautious on May. Model optimistic.
- YELLOW zone 50.1% WR on this edge (21.8%, 60.9% prob) — no strong signal.
TBD PITCHERMODEL MARKET CONFLICTCAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 51.9%
-29.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.5 pts
Total
9.0
+21.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →