STL vs ARI prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 6.0 - STL 5.8. ARI is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
ARI
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARISTL
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.8% (2,910 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
468
ARI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%97 mph17% whiff
FC22%93 mph20% whiff
ST19%86 mph33% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%93 mph11% whiff
SI19%93 mph9% whiff
CU19%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
100°F2 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
3.4 runs
45.8% win
ARI F5
3.3 runs
42.9% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
46.8%
YRFI
53.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.29
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL3 injured
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
ARI8 injured
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Troy LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 51.9%
-29.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.5 pts
Total
9.0
+21.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.