TEX vs ATL prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 6.0 - TEX 5.1. ATL is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
ATL
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TEX
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLTEX
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
ATL
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF45%96 mph21% whiff
CU21%82 mph28% whiff
CH11%87 mph33% whiff
Owen Murphy R
ATL
FF60%94 mph18% whiff
CH18%87 mph10% whiff
CU16%80 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
90°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.012
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-24.2% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-19.6% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-19.3% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.8% EV
+152
F5 OVER 4.5
+12.1% EV
-145
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+9.9% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.9 runs
35.8% win
ATL F5
3.8 runs
52.8% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
39.5%
YRFI
60.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.49
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Owen Murphy | Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs MacKenzie Gore
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs MacKenzie Gore
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Owen Murphy
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jacob deGrom SPDAY-TO-DAY
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Mike Yastrzemski LF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=348)
Owen Murphy (ATL) 2.43 ERA, elite command (A), 28.6% K-rate dominates MacKenzie Gore (N/A ERA, 25.5% K-rate). F5 OVER 4.5 shows 66.3% prob, 12.1% edge — clean first-inning edge exploitable despite weak full-game ML value.
Key Factors
- FIRST 5 INNING MISMATCH: Murphy (ATL) 2.43 ERA, command A, K-rate 28.6% vs Gore (TEX) N/A, K-rate 25.5%. Early-inning control favors ATL.
- F5 edge 12.1% on OVER 4.5 (66.3% prob) is CLEAN and in sweet spot (5-10% edges show 66.7% WR historically). Full game edges are worse value.
- Truist Park 89.6°F + 8.1 mph wind IN (-5.5) = mild suppression. Not extreme weather.
- ATL lineup elite vs RHP (Drake Baldwin 30% HR prob, Matt Olson power threat). TEX weak vs LHP (Gore throws LHP... wait, Gore is RHP). Minimal advantage.
- F5 strategy exploits Murphy's elite command in early relief; Gore may struggle early before adjusting.
Risk Factors
- Full-game OVER 9.0 only shows 9.9% edge (58.8% prob) — weak. Late innings compress runs (both bullpens stabilize).
- Gore's N/A ERA is uncertain. Could be elite or weak. If he settles in, F5 advantage evaporates.
- 5-10% edge sweet spot (66.7% WR) is small sample (n=21). Confidence modest.
F5 VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 55.4%
-24.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-24.2 pts
Total
9.0
+9.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →