TB vs BOS prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.8 - TB 6.2. TB is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 12.0 total runs.
BOS
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
TB
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTB
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
BOS
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ian Seymour L
TB
CH30%84 mph34% whiff
FF24%92 mph22% whiff
ST24%81 mph34% whiff
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
SL31%86 mph20% whiff
CH28%84 mph44% whiff
FF25%94 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
72°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.986
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.1% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-27.9% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+17.0% EV
-118
F5 OVER 5.5
+13.1% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-6.9% EV
-120
ML HOME
-5.6% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.3 runs
43.7% win
BOS F5
3.4 runs
44.7% win
F5 Total
6.8
NRFI
44.7%
YRFI
55.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.35
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Patrick Sandoval | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.088 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Patrick Sandoval | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Ian Seymour | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ian Seymour
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Patrick Sandoval
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=348)
Both SPs are N/A ERA (Patrick Sandoval LHP, Ian Seymour LHP) — TBD pitcher concern. Model projects 63.2% OVER (9.5 total) but market respects uncertainty on two unproven arms. Game lacks clarity; skip for named-era certainty.
Key Factors
- Both SPs have N/A ERA — critical uncertainty. Patrick Sandoval K-rate 26.3%, Ian Seymour K-rate 27.8% (similar), but workload unknown.
- Sandoval: SL 30.8%, CH 27.7% (breaking-ball heavy, defensive arsenal). Seymour: CH 30.3%, FF 24.5% (balanced). Neither shows elite arsenal grades.
- Fenway Park 1.08 factor + 72.2°F cool + 15.5 mph wind IN (-8.7) = noticeably pitcher-friendly. Model's 12.0 total may be inflated vs reality.
- Model 63.2% OVER vs market 50% gap is 13.2% — significant but not justified by clear data given TBD status.
- 13.2% edge on totals in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) = unreliable signal.
Risk Factors
- TWO TBD PITCHERS: This is the highest uncertainty game on slate. Skip games with multiple unknowns.
- Fenway's wind IN and cool temp actively suppress totals. Model not fully accounting for weather headwind.
- Both K-rates similar (26-28%) but if both settle in, totals compress further below 9.5.
TBD PITCHERMULTIPLE UNKNOWNSCAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 51.2%
-34.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.1 pts
Total
9.5
+17.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →