BAL vs HOU prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 6.2 - BAL 4.9. HOU is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
HOU
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
BAL
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUBAL
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
HOU
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF44%94 mph20% whiff
CH23%87 mph22% whiff
ST12%78 mph30% whiff
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU34%77 mph35% whiff
FF29%92 mph19% whiff
ST12%79 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
94°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-25.6% EV
+150
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-21.0% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-19.4% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-17.7% EV
-182
ML AWAY
-13.0% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+12.3% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.7 runs
35.5% win
HOU F5
3.6 runs
52.9% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
47.4%
YRFI
52.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.28
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 0.99x
Pete Alonso BAL28.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 0.99x
Samuel Basallo BAL26.9%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU7 injured
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE59.6% WR (n=11)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) N/A ERA, curveball dominance (33.5%) vs Trevor Rogers (BAL) N/A ERA, mediocre stuff (C), creates 6% edge on HOU ML (54.9% prob). Home field + park factor (1.0) + 93.6°F heat favor HOU. Modest edge justified by pitcher grades and home venue.
Key Factors
- SP MISMATCH (slight): Arrighetti (HOU) curveball 33.5% (elite strikeout pitch), K-rate 8.6%, but N/A ERA. Rogers (BAL) N/A ERA, weak stuff (C), mediocre command. Arrighetti's arsenal superior.
- HOU home field advantage: Minute Maid Park 1.0 factor (neutral), but 93.6°F heat boosts offensive energy. HOU hitters energized at home in heat.
- BAL bullpen: Felix Bautista 60-day IL (shoulder), key closer unavailable. Late-inning stability compromised.
- 6% ML edge on HOU is modest — in sweet spot. Zone data shows home ML at 10-15% edge = 59.6% WR (small sample but positive).
- Model 54.9% prob HOU (vs market 51.8%) justified by home field, pitcher grades, and opponent bullpen weakness.
Risk Factors
- Both SPs have N/A ERA — uncertain workload and reliability. Arrighetti may be limited early (first appearance).
- BAL lineup has Yordan Alvarez-equivalent talent (Pete Alonso power threat). HOU's Alvarez (30% HR prob) may be matched.
- Minute Maid Park is relatively pitching-favorable despite home-field edge. Medium run environment.
ML VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 58.0%
-17.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-17.7 pts
Total
9.0
+12.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →