FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 prediction for October 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects FC Schalke 04 1.46 - FSV Mainz 05 1.55. FSV Mainz 05 is favored with a 38.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
FC Schalke 04
1.46
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
FSV Mainz 05
1.55
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FC Schalke 04DrawFSV Mainz 05
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 79.7% (1,661 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
FSV Mainz 05
0.81.62.3
FC Schalke 04
0.71.52.2
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Schalke 041.46
FSV Mainz 051.55
16.8Shots17.8
6.0On Target6.5
5.7Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
93.3%
Over 1.5
81.8%
Over 2.5
58.2%
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 2.5
41.8%
BTTS
50.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
6.3%
Match Context
BUNMedium
FC Schalke 04
3.02
Draw
3.41
FSV Mainz 05
2.34
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.