Houston Dynamo vs San Diego FC prediction for October 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects San Diego FC 1.79 - Houston Dynamo 1.29. San Diego FC is favored with a 47.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
San Diego FC
1.79
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Houston Dynamo
1.29
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
San Diego FCDrawHouston Dynamo
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.2% (1,621 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Houston Dynamo
0.51.32.1
San Diego FC
1.01.82.6
Expected Goals (xG)
San Diego FC1.79
Houston Dynamo1.29
18.5Shots16.7
6.6On Target6.0
5.9Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.7%
Over 1.5
81.8%
Over 2.5
59.3%
Over 3.5
36.9%
Under 2.5
40.7%
BTTS
42.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
7.7%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
6.9%
Match Context
MLSMedium
San Diego FC
2.05
Draw
3.79
Houston Dynamo
3.55
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.