FINAL: Cagliari 1 — Lecce 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Cagliari 1.78 - Lecce 1.35 (Cagliari at 42.8% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.1..
Cagliari
1.78
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Lecce
1.35
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
CagliariDrawLecce
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.6% (1,439 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lecce
0.61.42.1
Cagliari
1.01.82.6
Projected
Cagliari 1.78 — Lecce 1.35
Actual
Cagliari 1 — Lecce 0
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Cagliari1.78
Lecce1.35
16.9Shots17.3
6.1On Target6.3
5.6Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.4%
Over 1.5
82.0%
Over 2.5
60.7%
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
39.3%
BTTS
50.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.0%
Match Context
SERMedium
Cagliari
2.33
Draw
2.71
Lecce
3.94
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Home ML draw-trap: Cagliari favored 42.8% vs market 42.9% (NO edge), yet Lecce's xG profile (1.35 model vs 0.686 historical) suggests undervalued season performance. 31% draw risk kills ML. TOTAL OVER 2.5 at 60.67% model prob (vs historically mixed a supportive track record) too thin to justify bet.
Key Factors
- Model-market prob gap: -0.09% (Cagliari 42.83% vs market 42.92%). Essentially even — no edge exists.
- Draw risk: Model gives 31.23% draw probability (vs SOCCER seasonal 23% SER avg). 1-in-3 draws kill ML bets.
- xG quality check: Lecce 1.35 model xG vs 0.686 historical home goals/90 last season. Model undervaluing Lecce's recent form improvement (Lecce last 5: L-W-L-W-W, 0.6 WR)
- historical support grading: Home ML YELLOW (a supportive track record, n=7 micro sample) overstates confidence. Broader home ML historical support (a supportive track record, n=79). High variance historical support.
- Avg goals 3.13 suggests OVER likely, but market total line data shows 1.75 which appears to be a data artifact, not the actual match total line.
Risk Factors
- Draw probability 31.23% is 6+ pp above typical SER average — model may be miscalibrated on this fixture's expected outcome distribution
- Lecce's attack strength (1.89, top-tier) performs better than Cagliari's defense rating (0.90) would suggest. Underdog value trap.
- Home ML in SOCCER historically a supportive track record (historically weak across all games) — even small edges are prey to variance.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cagliari 42.8%
--
Total
3.1
+48.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.