FINAL: Everton 2 — Manchester United 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Everton 1.23 - Manchester United 1.73 (Manchester United at 43.8% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Everton
1.23
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Manchester United
1.73
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
EvertonDrawManchester United
Manchester United L5Everton
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.6% (1,421 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Manchester United
1.01.72.5
Everton
0.51.22.0
Projected
Everton 1.23 — Manchester United 1.73
Actual
Everton 2 — Manchester United 2
Pick Results
UNDER 2.75totalLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Everton1.23
Manchester United1.73
14.3Shots18.2
5.3On Target6.6
5.3Corners5.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
80.5%
Over 2.5
55.5%
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
44.5%
BTTS
50.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.2%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
6.9%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Everton
4.40
Draw
2.72
Manchester United
2.19
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Match already resolved 2-2 (96th-min equalizer) -- confirms high draw risk (32.2% model) that made pre-game ML picks on either side low-value.
Key Factors
- Actual result: DRAW 2-2
- Model draw prob was 32.2%, highest pre-game signal on slate
Risk Factors
- Game complete -- no forward-looking value
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Manchester United 43.8%
--
Total
3.0
+58.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.