Marseille vs SK Sturm Graz prediction for October 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SK Sturm Graz 1.2 - Marseille 1.83. Marseille is favored with a 48.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
SK Sturm Graz
1.2
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Marseille
1.83
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SK Sturm GrazDrawMarseille
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 79.1% (1,756 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Marseille
1.11.82.6
SK Sturm Graz
0.41.22.0
Projected
SK Sturm Graz 1.2 — Marseille 1.83
Actual
SK Sturm Graz 1 — Marseille 0
Expected Goals (xG)
SK Sturm Graz1.20
Marseille1.83
16.1Shots15.9
5.8On Target5.6
5.6Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.9%
Over 1.5
81.0%
Over 2.5
58.1%
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 2.5
41.9%
BTTS
37.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.4%
Match Context
UELHigh
SK Sturm Graz
4.12
Draw
3.91
Marseille
1.86
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.