FINAL: Atlanta United FC 2 — Orlando City SC 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Atlanta United FC 1.62 - Orlando City SC 1.35 (Atlanta United FC at 46.5% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Atlanta United FC
1.62
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Orlando City SC
1.35
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Atlanta United FCDrawOrlando City SC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (1,447 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Orlando City SC
0.61.42.1
Atlanta United FC
0.81.62.4
Projected
Atlanta United FC 1.62 — Orlando City SC 1.35
Actual
Atlanta United FC 2 — Orlando City SC 3
Pick Results
UNDER 3.25totalLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1.62
Orlando City SC1.35
19.6Shots15.8
7.2On Target5.6
6.1Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
80.2%
Over 2.5
55.3%
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 2.5
44.7%
BTTS
59.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
2-0
6.8%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Atlanta United FC
2.22
Draw
4.03
Orlando City SC
2.98
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Atlanta United FC 46.5%
--
Total
3.0
+17.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.