Orlando City SC vs Philadelphia Union prediction for September 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Philadelphia Union 2.09 - Orlando City SC 1.25. Philadelphia Union is favored with a 57.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Philadelphia Union
2.09
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Orlando City SC
1.25
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Philadelphia UnionDrawOrlando City SC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.0% (1,603 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Orlando City SC
0.51.22.0
Philadelphia Union
1.32.12.9
Projected
Philadelphia Union 2.09 — Orlando City SC 1.25
Actual
Philadelphia Union 4 — Orlando City SC 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union2.09
Orlando City SC1.25
19.8Shots15.4
7.2On Target5.4
6.1Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.3%
Over 1.5
83.1%
Over 2.5
64.1%
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
35.9%
BTTS
58.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
6.9%
1-0
6.8%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Philadelphia Union
1.51
Draw
5.19
Orlando City SC
5.49
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.