Paris Saint Germain vs Villarreal prediction for November 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Villarreal 1.54 - Paris Saint Germain 2.07. Paris Saint Germain is favored with a 50.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.6..
Villarreal
1.54
Projected Goals
VS
3.6 total
Paris Saint Germain
2.07
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
VillarrealDrawParis Saint Germain
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.9% (1,947 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Paris Saint Germain
1.32.12.8
Villarreal
0.81.52.3
Projected
Villarreal 1.54 — Paris Saint Germain 2.07
Actual
Villarreal 0 — Paris Saint Germain 6
Expected Goals (xG)
Villarreal1.54
Paris Saint Germain2.07
17.4Shots15.9
6.1On Target6.1
5.9Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.8%
Over 1.5
88.0%
Over 2.5
69.9%
Over 3.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
30.1%
BTTS
66.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
9.4%
1-2
9.2%
2-2
7.0%
2-1
6.8%
1-3
6.3%
Match Context
UCLHigh
Villarreal
4.46
Draw
4.41
Paris Saint Germain
1.71
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.