San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati prediction for August 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects FC Cincinnati 1.62 - San Jose Earthquakes 1.25. FC Cincinnati is favored with a 47.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
FC Cincinnati
1.62
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
San Jose Earthquakes
1.25
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FC CincinnatiDrawSan Jose Earthquakes
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,172 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
San Jose Earthquakes
0.51.22.0
FC Cincinnati
0.81.62.4
Projected
FC Cincinnati 1.62 — San Jose Earthquakes 1.25
Actual
FC Cincinnati 4 — San Jose Earthquakes 2
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati1.62
San Jose Earthquakes1.25
18.3Shots16.0
6.6On Target5.7
5.9Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.2%
Over 1.5
77.4%
Over 2.5
52.6%
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 2.5
47.4%
BTTS
57.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
Match Context
MLSMedium
FC Cincinnati
1.88
Draw
4.38
San Jose Earthquakes
3.61
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
ML is disabled in calibration. Home ML historical support below break-even despite market overpricing home by 11.9%. Model significantly undershoots total (2.88 vs 3.75) — Under 3.75 has edge but historically mixed is marginal. 22.61% draw probability further kills ML value.
Key Factors
- xG gap: Cincinnati 1.62 vs San Jose 1.25 (0.37 xG advantage, modest)
- Home ML historical support: a supportive track record (YELLOW), below break-even despite 11.9% market-model gap
- Market overprices home by 11.9% (59.2% vs 47.3% model) — large gap but historical support weakness overrides
- Totals: Model 2.88 vs market 3.75 (0.87 goal gap, 23% edge) suggests strong Under value
- Draw probability 22.61% penalizes 3-way ML bets significantly
Risk Factors
- Home ML disabled in calibration — do not recommend regardless of market edge
- Under 3.75 edge (0.87 goals, ~23%) clears historically mixed threshold (8%), but requires careful odds evaluation
- MLS model may be underestimating scoring; 3.75 market total vs 2.88 model suggests significant model-data mismatch
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Soccer 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Soccer 2026 season report card.