TSG Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects SC Paderborn 1.34 - TSG Hoffenheim 1.84. TSG Hoffenheim is favored with a 51.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
SC Paderborn
1.34
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
TSG Hoffenheim
1.84
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SC PaderbornDrawTSG Hoffenheim
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 80.4% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
TSG Hoffenheim
1.11.82.6
SC Paderborn
0.61.32.1
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Paderborn1.34
TSG Hoffenheim1.84
16.7Shots17.5
6.0On Target6.4
5.7Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.2%
Over 1.5
80.8%
Over 2.5
58.2%
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
41.8%
BTTS
58.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
Match Context
BUNMedium
SC Paderborn
3.96
Draw
4.37
TSG Hoffenheim
1.81
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.