Valencia vs Alavés prediction for September 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Alavés 1.77 - Valencia 0.94. Alavés is favored with a 57.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.7..
Alavés
1.77
Projected Goals
VS
2.7 total
Valencia
0.94
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AlavésDrawValencia
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.9% (1,497 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Valencia
0.20.91.7
Alavés
1.01.82.5
Projected
Alavés 1.77 — Valencia 0.94
Actual
Alavés 0 — Valencia 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Alavés1.77
Valencia0.94
15.0Shots15.4
5.7On Target5.5
5.5Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.0%
Over 1.5
76.3%
Over 2.5
48.8%
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 2.5
51.2%
BTTS
50.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.8%
1-0
11.3%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.3%
Match Context
LALCritical
Alavés
1.68
Draw
3.72
Valencia
5.82
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.