VfB Stuttgart (W) vs Werder Bremen (W) prediction for September 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Werder Bremen (W) 1.7 - VfB Stuttgart (W) 1.25. Werder Bremen (W) is favored with a 48.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Werder Bremen (W)
1.7
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
VfB Stuttgart (W)
1.25
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Werder Bremen (W)DrawVfB Stuttgart (W)
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,603 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
VfB Stuttgart (W)
0.51.22.0
Werder Bremen (W)
0.91.72.5
Expected Goals (xG)
Werder Bremen (W)1.70
VfB Stuttgart (W)1.25
16.6Shots17.4
6.0On Target6.4
5.6Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.0%
Over 1.5
79.6%
Over 2.5
55.3%
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 2.5
44.7%
BTTS
59.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
Match Context
BUNMedium
Werder Bremen (W)
1.83
Draw
3.60
VfB Stuttgart (W)
3.45
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.