FINAL: Real Racing Club de Santander 2 — Villarreal 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Real Racing Club de Santander 1.54 - Villarreal 1.68 (Villarreal at 26.7% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.2..
Real Racing Club de Santander
1.54
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Villarreal
1.68
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Real Racing Club de SantanderDrawVillarreal
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,230 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Villarreal
0.91.72.5
Real Racing Club de Santander
0.81.52.3
Projected
Real Racing Club de Santander 1.54 — Villarreal 1.68
Actual
Real Racing Club de Santander 2 — Villarreal 2
Pick Results
OVER 2.75totalWIN+0.48u
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Racing Club de Santander1.54
Villarreal1.68
18.5Shots14.6
7.0On Target5.4
6.0Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.1%
Over 1.5
78.5%
Over 2.5
62.2%
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
37.8%
BTTS
61.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.0%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
6.3%
Match Context
LALCritical
Real Racing Club de Santander
5.59
Draw
1.76
Villarreal
3.27
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Villarreal 26.7%
--
Total
3.2
+56.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.