Anastasia Potapova vs Coco Gauff prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Coco Gauff 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Coco Gauff is favored with a 52.5% win probability.
Coco Gauff
1883
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1660
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Coco GauffAnastasia Potapova
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Potapova
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff leads by 224 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
55.5%
Below tour avg
Coco Gauff SPW
53.8%
Below tour avg
● Anastasia Potapova has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
+315
Model: 48%
Edge: +23.4%
Coco Gauff ML
-362
Model: 52%
Edge: -25.8%
Model Projection
Anastasia Potapova ML +315 · +23.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Coco Gauff holds a commanding 224-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Anastasia Potapova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coco Gauff 52.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.