Anastasia Potapova vs Coco Gauff prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Coco Gauff 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Coco Gauff is favored with a 52.5% win probability.
Coco Gauff
1883
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1660
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Coco GauffAnastasia Potapova
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Potapova
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff leads by 224 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
55.5%
Below tour avg
Coco Gauff SPW
53.8%
Below tour avg
● Anastasia Potapova has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
+315
Model: 48%
Edge: +23.4%
Coco Gauff ML
-362
Model: 52%
Edge: -25.8%
Model Projection
Anastasia Potapova ML +315 · +23.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Coco Gauff holds a commanding 224-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Anastasia Potapova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coco Gauff 52.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →