Raphael Collignon vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matteo Arnaldi 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Raphael Collignon is favored with a 60.0% win probability.
Matteo Arnaldi
1506
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1501
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Matteo ArnaldiRaphael Collignon
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Raphael Collignon
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi leads by 6 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
60.9%
Below tour avg
Matteo Arnaldi SPW
59.1%
Below tour avg
● Raphael Collignon has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raphael Collignon ML
-207
Model: 60%
Edge: -7.4%
Matteo Arnaldi ML
+186
Model: 40%
Edge: +5.1%
Model Projection
Matteo Arnaldi ML +186 · +5.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (6-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Raphael Collignon has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raphael Collignon 60.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.