Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael Jodar prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rafael Jodar 0 - Pablo Carreno Busta 0. Pablo Carreno Busta is favored with a 51.8% win probability.
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pablo Carreno Busta
1460
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Rafael JodarPablo Carreno Busta
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.0% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pablo Carreno Busta
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar leads by 88 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pablo Carreno Busta SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
Rafael Jodar SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
● Pablo Carreno Busta has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Carreno Busta ML
+390
Model: 52%
Edge: +31.4%
Rafael Jodar ML
-454
Model: 48%
Edge: -33.8%
Model Projection
Pablo Carreno Busta ML +390 · +31.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar has a moderate 88-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Pablo Carreno Busta has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pablo Carreno Busta 51.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.