Andrey Rublev vs Jakub Mensik prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jakub Mensik 0 - Andrey Rublev 0. Jakub Mensik is favored with a 50.1% win probability.
Jakub Mensik
1656
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jakub MensikAndrey Rublev
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrey Rublev
Jakub Mensik
Andrey Rublev leads by 18 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrey Rublev SPW
62.7%
Below tour avg
Jakub Mensik SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrey Rublev ML
-120
Model: 50%
Edge: -4.6%
Jakub Mensik ML
+107
Model: 50%
Edge: +1.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (18-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jakub Mensik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jakub Mensik 50.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →