Aoi Ito vs Amelia Rajecki prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Amelia Rajecki 0 - Aoi Ito 0. Aoi Ito is favored with a 54.9% win probability.
Amelia Rajecki
1477
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Aoi Ito
1577
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Amelia RajeckiAoi Ito
Hard
Surface
WTA 125K Birmingham
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125K Birmingham
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Aoi Ito
Amelia Rajecki
Aoi Ito leads by 100 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Aoi Ito SPW
56.2%
Below tour avg
Amelia Rajecki SPW
56.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Aoi Ito ML
-182
Model: 55%
Edge: -9.6%
Amelia Rajecki ML
+151
Model: 45%
Edge: +5.2%
Model Projection
Amelia Rajecki ML +151 · +5.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Aoi Ito holds a commanding 100-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Aoi Ito has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aoi Ito 54.9%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →