Aoi Ito vs Amelia Rajecki prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Amelia Rajecki 0 - Aoi Ito 0. Aoi Ito is favored with a 54.9% win probability.
Amelia Rajecki
1477
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Aoi Ito
1577
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Amelia RajeckiAoi Ito
Hard
Surface
WTA 125K Birmingham
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125K Birmingham
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Aoi Ito
Amelia Rajecki
Aoi Ito leads by 100 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Aoi Ito SPW
56.2%
Below tour avg
Amelia Rajecki SPW
56.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Aoi Ito ML
-182
Model: 55%
Edge: -9.6%
Amelia Rajecki ML
+151
Model: 45%
Edge: +5.2%
Model Projection
Amelia Rajecki ML +151 · +5.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Aoi Ito holds a commanding 100-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Aoi Ito has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aoi Ito 54.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.