Arthur Fils vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard prediction for October 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 0 - Arthur Fils 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 87.1% win probability.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
1714
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Arthur Fils
2043
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardArthur Fils
Hard
Surface
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 83.0% (19,621 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Arthur Fils
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Arthur Fils leads by 329 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Arthur Fils SPW
67.7%
Above tour avg
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard SPW
64.7%
Above tour avg
● Arthur Fils has a slight serve edge (+2.9%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fils holds a commanding 329-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Arthur Fils has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Arthur Fils at 87%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.