Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo prediction for October 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alejandro Tabilo 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 75.2% win probability.
Alejandro Tabilo
1870
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Rafael Jodar
2065
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Alejandro TabiloRafael Jodar
Hard
Surface
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.9% (19,621 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Rafael Jodar
Alejandro Tabilo
Rafael Jodar leads by 195 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
64.7%
Above tour avg
Alejandro Tabilo SPW
64.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar holds a commanding 195-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alejandro Tabilo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Rafael Jodar at 75%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.