Arthur Fils vs Rafael Jodar prediction for July 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rafael Jodar 0 - Arthur Fils 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 61.2% win probability.
Rafael Jodar
1600
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Arthur Fils
1703
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Rafael JodarArthur Fils
Hard
Surface
Mubadala DC Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (13,991 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Mubadala DC Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Arthur Fils
Rafael Jodar
Arthur Fils leads by 103 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Arthur Fils SPW
62.3%
Above tour avg
Rafael Jodar SPW
60.1%
Above tour avg
● Arthur Fils has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fils holds a commanding 103-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Arthur Fils has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.