Corentin Moutet vs Vit Kopriva prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Vit Kopriva 0 - Corentin Moutet 0. Corentin Moutet is favored with a 61.3% win probability.
Vit Kopriva
1501
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Corentin Moutet
1617
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Vit KoprivaCorentin Moutet
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Corentin Moutet
Vit Kopriva
Corentin Moutet leads by 116 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Corentin Moutet SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
Vit Kopriva SPW
58.3%
Below tour avg
● Corentin Moutet has a slight serve edge (+2.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Corentin Moutet ML
-118
Model: 61%
Edge: +7.2%
Vit Kopriva ML
+109
Model: 39%
Edge: -9.2%
Model Projection
Corentin Moutet ML -118 · +7.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Corentin Moutet holds a commanding 116-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Corentin Moutet has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Corentin Moutet 61.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →