Corentin Moutet vs Vit Kopriva prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Vit Kopriva 0 - Corentin Moutet 0. Corentin Moutet is favored with a 61.3% win probability.
Vit Kopriva
1501
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Corentin Moutet
1617
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Vit KoprivaCorentin Moutet
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Corentin Moutet
Vit Kopriva
Corentin Moutet leads by 116 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Corentin Moutet SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
Vit Kopriva SPW
58.3%
Below tour avg
● Corentin Moutet has a slight serve edge (+2.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Corentin Moutet ML
-118
Model: 61%
Edge: +7.2%
Vit Kopriva ML
+109
Model: 39%
Edge: -9.2%
Model Projection
Corentin Moutet ML -118 · +7.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Corentin Moutet holds a commanding 116-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Corentin Moutet has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Corentin Moutet 61.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.