Daniil Medvedev vs Adam Walton prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Adam Walton 0 - Daniil Medvedev 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 64.6% win probability.
Adam Walton
1477
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Daniil Medvedev
1723
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Adam WaltonDaniil Medvedev
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Daniil Medvedev
Adam Walton
Daniil Medvedev leads by 246 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Daniil Medvedev SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
Adam Walton SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
● Daniil Medvedev has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniil Medvedev ML
-176
Model: 65%
Edge: +0.8%
Adam Walton ML
+161
Model: 35%
Edge: -2.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev holds a commanding 246-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Daniil Medvedev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 64.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.