Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Maja Chwalinska 0 - Elise Mertens 0. Elise Mertens is favored with a 59.8% win probability.
Maja Chwalinska
1448
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Elise Mertens
1657
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Maja ChwalinskaElise Mertens
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Elise Mertens
Maja Chwalinska
Elise Mertens leads by 209 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Elise Mertens SPW
55.2%
Below tour avg
Maja Chwalinska SPW
54.0%
Below tour avg
● Elise Mertens has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Elise Mertens ML
-236
Model: 60%
Edge: -10.4%
Maja Chwalinska ML
+215
Model: 40%
Edge: +8.5%
Model Projection
Maja Chwalinska ML +215 · +8.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Elise Mertens holds a commanding 209-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Elise Mertens has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Elise Mertens 59.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.