Fiona Ferro vs Erika Andreeva prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Erika Andreeva 0 - Fiona Ferro 0. Fiona Ferro is favored with a 56.2% win probability.
Erika Andreeva
1445
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Fiona Ferro
1498
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Erika AndreevaFiona Ferro
Hard
Surface
Palermo
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.2% (13,409 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Palermo
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Fiona Ferro
Erika Andreeva
Fiona Ferro leads by 53 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Fiona Ferro SPW
55.6%
Below tour avg
Erika Andreeva SPW
54.8%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Fiona Ferro has a moderate 53-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Fiona Ferro has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.