Hamad Medjedovic vs Casper Ruud prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Casper Ruud 0 - Hamad Medjedovic 0. Casper Ruud is favored with a 61.6% win probability.
Casper Ruud
1677
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Casper RuudHamad Medjedovic
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Hamad Medjedovic
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud leads by 174 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
Casper Ruud SPW
63.2%
Below tour avg
● Casper Ruud has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Hamad Medjedovic ML
+231
Model: 38%
Edge: +8.2%
Casper Ruud ML
-260
Model: 62%
Edge: -10.6%
Model Projection
Hamad Medjedovic ML +231 · +8.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Casper Ruud holds a commanding 174-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Casper Ruud has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Casper Ruud 61.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.