Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marta Kostyuk 0 - Iga Swiatek 0. Iga Swiatek is favored with a 74.7% win probability.
Marta Kostyuk
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Iga Swiatek
2042
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marta KostyukIga Swiatek
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.3% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Iga Swiatek
Marta Kostyuk
Iga Swiatek leads by 359 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Iga Swiatek SPW
62.3%
Above tour avg
Marta Kostyuk SPW
52.4%
Below tour avg
● Iga Swiatek has a significant serve advantage (+9.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Iga Swiatek ML
-256
Model: 75%
Edge: +2.8%
Marta Kostyuk ML
+227
Model: 25%
Edge: -5.3%
Key Matchup Factors
- Iga Swiatek holds a commanding 359-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Iga Swiatek has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Iga Swiatek at 75%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Iga Swiatek 74.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.