Jan Choinski vs Jesper de Jong prediction for July 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jesper de Jong 0 - Jan Choinski 0. Jesper de Jong is favored with a 52.4% win probability.
Jesper de Jong
1543
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Jan Choinski
1444
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Jesper de JongJan Choinski
Hard
Surface
Estoril
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.2% (13,220 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Estoril
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jan Choinski
Jesper de Jong
Jesper de Jong leads by 99 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Jan Choinski SPW
64.2%
Above tour avg
Jesper de Jong SPW
64.2%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jesper de Jong has a moderate 99-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jan Choinski has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.