Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Carreno-Busta prediction for July 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Carreno-Busta 0 - Vilius Gaubas 0. Pablo Carreno-Busta is favored with a 51.3% win probability.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Vilius Gaubas
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Carreno-BustaVilius Gaubas
Hard
Surface
Estoril
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.1% (13,220 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Estoril
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Vilius Gaubas
Pablo Carreno-Busta
Vilius Gaubas leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Vilius Gaubas SPW
62.8%
Below tour avg
Pablo Carreno-Busta SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Pablo Carreno-Busta has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.