Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Timofey Skatov 0 - Joao Domingues 0. Timofey Skatov is favored with a 59.6% win probability.
Timofey Skatov
1406
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Joao Domingues
1503
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Timofey SkatovJoao Domingues
Hard
Surface
Estoril
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (12,903 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Estoril
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Joao Domingues
Timofey Skatov
Joao Domingues leads by 97 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Joao Domingues SPW
60.4%
Below tour avg
Timofey Skatov SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
● Timofey Skatov has a slight serve edge (+2.0%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Joao Domingues has a moderate 97-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Timofey Skatov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Timofey Skatov 59.6%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.