Marie Bouzkova vs Mirra Andreeva prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mirra Andreeva 0 - Marie Bouzkova 0. Mirra Andreeva is favored with a 61.6% win probability.
Mirra Andreeva
1811
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Marie Bouzkova
1630
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mirra AndreevaMarie Bouzkova
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.8% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Marie Bouzkova
Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva leads by 180 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Marie Bouzkova SPW
55.2%
Below tour avg
Mirra Andreeva SPW
57.6%
Above tour avg
● Mirra Andreeva has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Marie Bouzkova ML
+514
Model: 38%
Edge: +22.1%
Mirra Andreeva ML
-667
Model: 62%
Edge: -25.3%
Model Projection
Marie Bouzkova ML +514 · +22.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Mirra Andreeva holds a commanding 180-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mirra Andreeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mirra Andreeva 61.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →