Martina Trevisan vs Francesca Jones prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francesca Jones 0 - Martina Trevisan 0. Francesca Jones is favored with a 57.1% win probability.
Francesca Jones
1443
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Martina Trevisan
1487
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Francesca JonesMartina Trevisan
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.3% (12,903 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Martina Trevisan
Francesca Jones
Martina Trevisan leads by 44 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Martina Trevisan SPW
51.3%
Below tour avg
Francesca Jones SPW
54.9%
Below tour avg
● Francesca Jones has a significant serve advantage (+3.6%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Martina Trevisan has a moderate 44-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Francesca Jones has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Francesca Jones 57.1%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.