Marton Fucsovics vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction for August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 - Marton Fucsovics 0. Daniel Merida Aguilar is favored with a 56.1% win probability.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1889
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Marton Fucsovics
1828
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Daniel Merida AguilarMarton Fucsovics
Hard
Surface
ATP US Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (16,976 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP US Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Marton Fucsovics
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Daniel Merida Aguilar leads by 61 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Marton Fucsovics SPW
61.8%
Below tour avg
Daniel Merida Aguilar SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniel Merida Aguilar has a moderate 61-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Marton Fucsovics has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.