Pedro Martinez vs David Jorda Sanchis prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects David Jorda Sanchis 0 - Pedro Martinez 0. David Jorda Sanchis is favored with a 55.9% win probability.
David Jorda Sanchis
1532
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Pedro Martinez
1367
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
David Jorda SanchisPedro Martinez
Hard
Surface
Estoril
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.0% (12,903 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Estoril
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Pedro Martinez
David Jorda Sanchis
David Jorda Sanchis leads by 165 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Pedro Martinez SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
David Jorda Sanchis SPW
66.2%
Above tour avg
● David Jorda Sanchis has a significant serve advantage (+3.2%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- David Jorda Sanchis holds a commanding 165-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- David Jorda Sanchis has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
David Jorda Sanchis 55.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.