Rafael Jodar vs Alex Michelsen prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alex Michelsen 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 53.3% win probability.
Alex Michelsen
1493
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alex MichelsenRafael Jodar
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rafael Jodar
Alex Michelsen
Rafael Jodar leads by 55 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Alex Michelsen SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
● Alex Michelsen has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rafael Jodar ML
-400
Model: 53%
Edge: -26.7%
Alex Michelsen ML
+336
Model: 47%
Edge: +23.7%
Model Projection
Alex Michelsen ML +336 · +23.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar has a moderate 55-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alex Michelsen has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 53.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →