Rafael Jodar vs Alex Michelsen prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alex Michelsen 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 53.3% win probability.
Alex Michelsen
1493
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alex MichelsenRafael Jodar
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rafael Jodar
Alex Michelsen
Rafael Jodar leads by 55 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Alex Michelsen SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
● Alex Michelsen has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rafael Jodar ML
-400
Model: 53%
Edge: -26.7%
Alex Michelsen ML
+336
Model: 47%
Edge: +23.7%
Model Projection
Alex Michelsen ML +336 · +23.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar has a moderate 55-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alex Michelsen has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 53.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.