Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Juan Manuel Cerundolo 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Juan Manuel Cerundolo is favored with a 57.2% win probability.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
1422
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1623
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Juan Manuel CerundoloRaphael Collignon
Hard
Surface
EFG Swiss Open Gstaad
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.3% (12,903 games)
Match Context
Tournament
EFG Swiss Open Gstaad
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Raphael Collignon
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Raphael Collignon leads by 201 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
Juan Manuel Cerundolo SPW
65.2%
Above tour avg
● Juan Manuel Cerundolo has a significant serve advantage (+3.7%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon holds a commanding 201-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Juan Manuel Cerundolo 57.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.