Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury prediction for September 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Phoenix Mercury 82.9 - Las Vegas Aces 88.2. Las Vegas Aces is favored with a 67.4% win probability.
Phoenix Mercury
82.9
Projected Score
VS
Las Vegas Aces
88.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces
N/A
Spread
N/A
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 74.5% (350 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Las Vegas Aces
818895
Phoenix Mercury
768390
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets WNBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded WNBA 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the WNBA 2026 season report card.