Duke vs NC State prediction for November 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NC State 25.7 - Duke 26.8. Duke is favored with a 59.9% win probability. The spread is 4.0 and the total is 53.5.
NC State
25.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 53.5
Duke
26.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NC StateDuke
+4.0
Spread (NC State)
53.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.0% (1,138 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Duke
202734
NC State
182633
Market Lines
Spread
NC State +4.0
Total
53.5
Moneyline
+160
Away -192
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Football Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →