Florida State vs Louisville prediction for October 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Louisville 26.2 - Florida State 27.5. Florida State is favored with a 53.2% win probability. The spread is -3.5 and the total is 59.5.
Louisville
26.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 59.5
Florida State
27.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LouisvilleFlorida State
-3.5
Spread (Louisville)
59.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (1,002 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Florida State
202835
Louisville
192633
Market Lines
Spread
Louisville -3.5
Total
59.5
Moneyline
-185
Away +154
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →