Blair, Zac vs McCarty, Matt prediction for October 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McCarty, Matt 39 - Blair, Zac 44. Blair, Zac is favored with a 50.0% win probability. The spread is -0.04.
McCarty, Matt
+0.30
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Bank of Utah Championship
Blair, Zac
+0.31
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McCarty, MattBlair, Zac
+110
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Blair, Zac
374451
McCarty, Matt
323946
Tournament Context
Event
Bank of Utah Championship
Course
Black Desert Resort
Field
119 players
Wind
7 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
normal (-0.0)
Player Profile — Blair, Zac
Strokes Gained
+0.31/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.192 SG adj
Expected Finish
44th / 119
Matchup Analysis
Blair, Zac
+0.31 SG
EF 44th
Skill Gap
-0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
McCarty, Matt
+0.30 SG
EF 39th · Tour Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.