McCarthy, Denny vs Rodgers, Patrick prediction for October 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rodgers, Patrick 50 - McCarthy, Denny 70. McCarthy, Denny is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The spread is 0.55.
Rodgers, Patrick
-0.18
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Bank of Utah Championship
McCarthy, Denny
+0.35
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rodgers, PatrickMcCarthy, Denny
-110
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McCarthy, Denny
637077
Rodgers, Patrick
435057
Tournament Context
Event
Bank of Utah Championship
Course
Black Desert Resort
Field
119 players
Wind
7 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
normal (-0.0)
Player Profile — McCarthy, Denny
Strokes Gained
+0.35/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.266 SG adj
Expected Finish
70th / 119
Matchup Analysis
McCarthy, Denny
+0.35 SG
EF 70th
Skill Gap
+0.55 SG/round
meaningful skill advantage for McCarthy, Denny
Rodgers, Patrick
-0.18 SG
EF 50th · Below Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.