Conners, Corey vs Keefer, Johnny prediction for October 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Keefer, Johnny 64 - Conners, Corey 51. Conners, Corey is favored with a 55.0% win probability. Conners, Corey wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is 0.26.
Keefer, Johnny
+0.44
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Conners, Corey
+0.78
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Keefer, JohnnyConners, Corey
-110
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Conners, Corey
445158
Keefer, Johnny
576471
Tournament Context
Event
VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Course
Vidanta Vallarta
Field
120 players
Wind
8 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
harder (+0.3)
Player Profile — Conners, Corey
Strokes Gained
+0.78/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.131 SG adj
Expected Finish
51th / 120
Matchup Analysis
Conners, Corey
+0.78 SG
EF 51th
Skill Gap
+0.26 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Conners, Corey
Keefer, Johnny
+0.44 SG
EF 64th · Tour Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.