Dahmen, Joel vs Riley, Davis prediction for October 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Riley, Davis 39 - Dahmen, Joel 45. Dahmen, Joel is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The spread is 0.59.
Riley, Davis
-0.78
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Dahmen, Joel
-0.20
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Riley, DavisDahmen, Joel
-110
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dahmen, Joel
384552
Riley, Davis
323946
Tournament Context
Event
VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Course
Vidanta Vallarta
Field
119 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
88°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Dahmen, Joel
Strokes Gained
-0.20/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.165 SG adj
Expected Finish
45th / 119
Matchup Analysis
Dahmen, Joel
-0.20 SG
EF 45th
Skill Gap
+0.59 SG/round
meaningful skill advantage for Dahmen, Joel
Riley, Davis
-0.78 SG
EF 39th · Below Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.